The Exodus 

Reading Moses.  He does it again.  Mixes one story time line with another. 

Numbers 21:1 When the Canaanite king of Arad, who lived in the Negev, heard that Israel was coming along the road to Atharim, he attacked the Israelites and captured some of them.

But this wasn't when the Israelites were passing through Edom or Moab.   It was 38 years before.   This bit of information would have been useful to know when they were complaining of there being too strong of forces in the Hill country. 

Now, we know that some were captured.   Are these the spies or are they some of the warriors sent to capture the cities?   It might be good to know.  Did they die of plague like the others except Joshua and Caleb or were they left behind?

It seems outlandish that the spies were condemned because they were exaggerating the enemy.  Either in their physical size or strength of numbers.   So Moses condemns the spies for spreading fear among the troops and calls off any attack into Canaan.   But, what happens?   The Israelite army out of fear of God decides to attack despite of the spy report.  Moses then condemns the army for deciding to go into Canaan against his commands. Now, whose shirking their duty to go into Canaan?  And then the usual plague happens.   (Didn't God promise no plagues would happen to Israel like happened to Egypt?)  At this point it would be good to know if the Aradites have captured spies or are they waiting to the army to attack.  If the spies have been captured they might reveal Moses' plans.  Then turning tail and going back to Horeb leaves them behind.   In any case the army decided to attack without Moses blessing but most of all without the only experienced commander, Joshua at the lead.   Embarrassment follows. 

Exodus 15:15  The chiefs of Edom will be terrified,  the leaders of Moab will be seized with trembling, is suspicious because it indicates Moses is thinking about the leaders of Edom and Moab 40 years before actually negotiating with them.  If his plans all along were to fail to attack Canaan from the south then condemning the soldiers is dishonest.  He had no intention in fighting after the spies report.

Naming conventions.  It seems that roads have their common or actual names used when they are taken going away from a sea.   But, when going toward the Red (or Reed) Sea different roads are called 'The Way of the Red Sea'.

The Number of Israelites

There is the question of numbers.   How many Israelites were there?  The 603,550 number of men looks a little optimistic.   That many would drink a spring dry.

There was a different count that can be interpolated to get a more reasonable number.  Starting with the count of all Levites.      Nu 3:39 "The total number of Levites counted at the Lord's command by Moses and Aaron according to their clans, including every male a month old or more, was 22,000".  Then Nu  3:43 "The total number of firstborn males a month old or more, listed by name, was 22,273" .   

I've tried to resolve the numbers by dividing the number of first born males (I.e. couples) into the total of males 20 years and older and the results gives impossible numbers of sons per family.

One thing for certain there are not 603,550 men over the age of 20 years.  That would mean the 22,273 first born would have only 22,273 couples.  Each could would have over 27 sons.  And if you pro-rate that number for ages 0-50 you get 992,937 males.   With a similar number of females you get 89 children per couple.  So you are looking

at an impossibility.

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Couples without children, single women and single non-first born males would increase the tally.  Deceased adult parents of first born would decrease the count.  Also, fathers of first born who themselves were first born would be double counted so each would have to decrease the count by one.

Also, that assumes an equal number per each 10 year period.   We know in ancient times there was a very high mortality rate for children.  Per Roman Censuses we know that when there were 4.5 to 6 children born per couple this barely increased the number of resulting adults. 

There were two censuses.  One was sometime in the first year out of Egypt.   The second one in the fortieth year after leaving Egypt and before going into Canaan.  As can be seen there was almost no growth in population.   Whether this was because of a low birth rate or heavy losses in battle or to plague we don't know.  I give two sets of numbers.  While the Bible and Torah give the numbers in thousands or elephs and numbers of men it is proposed by David Rohl the word 'thousand' or eleph actually was the Hebrew word for leader, commander or chief, I.e. 'aleph'.  However, I found when substituting a single aleph for eleph in the numbers for the Levite groups the totals of all Levites were less than those for Levites 30-50 years of age.  The part was greater than the whole.   This means at some point the numbers were actually eleph.  But, most like they were given in terms of aleph and elephs.   Some scribe along the way added them together under the heading of eleph.   I did the minimum to rectify this by making one aleph an eleph.  Thus the numbers of all Levites and their groups are larger than the Levites and their groups of 30-50 year olds.   I applied this to the lower set of numbers for the other tribes to see what I get.  It does put a upper limit on the total number.  Though we really don't know if any tribe had more than 1,999 men.  It would certainly change the final tally. 

One sizable adjustment might be required.   Archaeologist have found an unusual number of infant graves in the Asiatic area.  They can't tell the sex of these.  Then there was a very large disparity in ratio of adult males to females graves.  40% male and 60% female.  So Pharaoh's policy of killing infant males may have had a pronounced  effect.  The ratio of sexes of the Exodus could also have 50% more females than males.  The exception to this may be first born males.  The Pharaoh allowed first born Aaron to live but second born (or at least not first born) Moses was to die.  So the first born male calculation to females would still stand, but the number of additional males would then be lower.

Others have looked at the numbers and they propose that the translation of 'thousands' should be 'groups' or troops.   The question then becomes "how many in a group?"   If a group is 10 or 12 then there's a very small number of Israelites.  They give an example is that if there were 600,000 fighting age males the Israelites should not have had so much trouble overcoming a group of brigand caravan raider Amalakites like they did at Rephidim.

Then if the entire Egyptian army was destroyed why didn't the Israelites go immediately back to Egypt and take over the place?  They would not be complaining of the lack of food variety and comfort.  They could of taken all the gold and silver for themselves and bought the promised land.

See my Numbers video Link

Another conflict of number of Israelites.

Deuteronomy 7:1 When the Lord your God brings you into the land you are entering to possess and drives out before you many nations--the Hittites, Girgashites, Amorites, Canaanites, Perizzites, Hivites and Jebusites, seven nations larger and stronger than you--

In 2019 there were 6.5 million Jews in Israel with a total of 8.2 million persons.  If there were 2.5 to 4 million Israelites that originally left Egypt and there was only a 10% increase in 40 years that would mean the number would be 2.75- 4.4 million when Moses is making the above statement.  Multiply that by 7.   Therefore there would be a total of more than 19.5- 31 million people living in what is Israel today.   That is much more than the current population.   The people of the region would be living cheek to jowl.   The people of the region would be at least double if not 4 times the population of Egypt of the time.  This would be the most populous province of Persia, Egypt, Alexander the Great or Rome.   Or, the number is not 2 - 4 million.

Which Red Sea Crossing Scenario?

Number 2 I find least likely even though many with Ph and D following their name favor this one.  While an actual wind setdown was observed on this route other factors point to it not being here.  This uses the Way of the Philistine road which is not allowed.  There is no wadi for Ph-Hahiroth to be a mouth of.  The camp next to the sea doesn't look like it would be in the desert, but in irrigated farm land.  After crossing the sea there would be a desert of sand dunes to cross to get to the Way of the Shur road.  There probably are no north-south roads east of the Bitter Lakes to get to the Way of the King as that would compromise the line of fortifications. 

While Number 3 has landmarks the fit right, but it is also iffy as the Etham camp is not off any established 'desert road'.  It is on a secondary road marked on a map of some very many centuries later.  It is not even in the official desert.  And, when going back the direction is off to an angle of directly back. 

Number 1 fits the bill as the desert road and the placement of the Etham camp.  The proper desert and landmarks all fit.  The problem is that the Reed Sea camp has to be on the shore of some lake.  Either Lake Ballah or Lake Timsah.   Now, one could reason a wind from the east would push the water of a setdown to the west so the eastern lake bed could be dry but only part of the north or south side.  That is true in a thought experiment.  But, Chaos theory may provide a different result.  If the lake had a specific shape and the lake bed specific contours maybe there were channels in the lake water buildup so crossing from west to east for a period of time could be possible.  It would be interesting to model different combinations of these.  Other than that it is left to the Israelites to cross from the north or south side and then veer to the east to remain on dry lake bed.

Lastly, where is the desert of entrapment?   There isn't one.  If the Israelites follow the roads and stay on them they won't be entrapped by sand dunes or sand storms.  The quote is actually, that Pharaoh will think they are entrapped.  Moses did not know what the Pharaoh was thinking.  Attributing that to the Israelites thinking is in error.

One argument goes "There was no Philistines to oppose Israel's Exodus from Egypt circa 1540 BC, 1446 BC or 1260 BC as they arrived in Canaan circa 1175 BC, something the biblical narrator did not know. The Exodus world is of circa the 8th-6th centuries BC, it being written in the Babylonian Exile circa 560 BC."   This supposedly proved because Philistine pottery shards of this date were found at the bottom of a well in Beersheba.  The problem is that Beersheba is not on the Way of the Philistines.  When they find something in a well in Gaza then we will have some proof.  In Deuteronomy 7:1 tells of 7 enemies in the Promised Land.  None of them are Philistines. 

Let's now look at that logic.  If writing about something so that it doesn't agree with timeline it must be outside the timeline.  So the above proof shows the Moses story must be after 1175 BC.    But, the Moses story includes Hitittes.   The Hitittes were destroyed in 1180 BC.   So the Moses story must of been written before 1180 BC.   So in conclusion it was written after 1175 BC and before 1180 BC.  There is a negative 5 year window of time. 

As for being written in exile.  I recall there was a little thing like the destruction and sacking of Israel and the capture and enslavement of the people going on before this.   So any written records would have been destroyed or impounded.  It was more likely the story was re-written from memory.  Thus the names of places often have two or even more names.   The old name, used during the events, and a later name that was used during the second writing of the events.  That could explain like the name Pi-Rameses was used for Avaris, and The Way of the Philistines being used for the Great Coastal Military Road out of Egypt.  A later more recognizable name substituted for an earlier historic name.

What is amazing is that the treasury of Israel that was captured was cataloged and remained intact from the Babylonians to the Persians.   This was finally returned to the Israelites.  I'm not aware of any sacred documents being returned.