Mobius' Dispatches from the Front

April 12, 2017
Well, Gonzanga wasn't the winner, but they were in the finals and came in second. Villanova was upset early and didn't finish in the final 8.   I don't know if I'm going to change the program.  I could add a conference factor that might weigh the teams in a conference more or less.  I probably won't work on this until next season. 

March 15, 2017
Someone might ask why am I wasting my time with this March Madness Basketball stuff on a wargaming site. It's just an exercise in probability.   I'm using the Ballistic hit rectangular probability equations for something they weren't designed for. 
So the most probable tournament winner is Gonzanga.  Next is Villanova. So if these don't show up in the final four I might change the probability equations to the ellipse probability equations as they have less certainty above 50%.  So teams with lower rankings and worse records have a little better chance.

Also I'm working on a new program to feed sighting range estimation into the Ballistics program.   Up to now it has just been a guess of how good the range estimation a tank gun with a certain sight could achieve.  I'm trying to make a quantitative estimate based of telescope sight characteristics.  Like magnification x field of view x light transmission % as a factor.   Then this adjusted by training and ranging calibration and maybe something else.   It will produce a standard deviation of range error.  I'll post a page with different sight values when I am finished..

March 13, 2017
It is back!   March Madness Basketball Bracket Breaker program has been updated for the 2017 March Mad Basketball tournament. After a hiatus of 3 years I decided to play again.

January 17, 2017
I had to revise my Soviet gun dispersion page 34 when I found out that the 1951 US document I was basing my calculations on had mis-translated captured Russian firing table information.  It had translated Russian 'mean deviation' for 'median deviation'.   That may seem a small matter but they are not mathematically the same.   When the deviation is described as 'median deviation' it results in making the 50% probability of a hit ~18% less likely.   In effect making Russian guns less accurate.   Several pages have to be changed so it may take awhile to do.

December 22, 2016
A new page of a tongue-
in-cheek look at R&D military science in Star Wars.

October 14, 2016
A new page on some strange ballistic behavior  I found examining WWII Firing Tables.  I have no opinion as to whether or not they are in error or not.  It just requires more work to get my ballistic calculator to match the firing tables of these guns.  This is outside the equations of Robert McCoy who came up with the original programming of the ballistic program.  See page 52.

September 5, 2016

Since the Equivalent armor protection study may be a big deal I'm going to release my BHN Equivalent Armor Protection calculator.  See page 36.

September 2, 2016
A revelation. It looks like all US tables of captured German guns penetration and ballistics were done by the British.  The criteria and target armor specs changed in late war to coincide with US needs and maybe with US cooperation.   But tables once thought to originate at Aberdeen now appear to be copies of British Ordnance Board test data.  link

June 25, 2016
A new page on the German 50mm gun has been added.  Some problems I found in data   link

Jan 10, 2016
I updated Enigma 2 program to generate new Powerball number scheme  here. [zip]

December 15, 2015
My friend Joe (a contributor to Panzer War) has made his own set of rules that could be called Panzer War feather

weight.   Free PDF of Kampfgruppe rules here. [zip]

December 2, 2015
Updated page 48 with two graphs of 75mm/L70 KwK 42 ballistics.  I compare Aberdeen data to German data for this gun.  Though there are questions with both data sets this is the best comparison that can be done with available sources.

November 14, 2015
For awhile it looked like the  Germans normalized their gun penetrations. That is adjusting the numbers by multiplying by a ratio factor depending on armor hardness quality.  If the 75mm/L70 table data is compared to the 75mm penetration graph it seemed like the armor hardness was normalized to 243 BHN.  But, when the data for the 75mm KwK 40 was compared in the same way the data showed that no normalizing took place.  The armor was what it was, namely 289 BHN.  I guess I could keep on comparing different guns. 

October 28, 2015
In case you are curious on how I determine gun penetration.  I use a computer program that averages as many good data sets as I can find.   They have to be unique and are normalized to the US standard V50 criteria.   However the sets are also adjusted to an armor hardness of 270 BHN.  Which is close to the German test armor quality of 80-105 kg/mm2 of 244-303 BHN or avg. of 267 BHN. Unlike others I don't use DeMarre* nor some other formula to come up with my own values.  It is hard enough just trying to normalize the official data from different national tests and I don't want to come up with speculative factors to account for shell design or nose hardness.
   An example: the Soviet 85mm S-53 tank cannon. The colored lines represent a single data set, the black line represents the average of 5 sets.  The final values are rounded to the nearest centimeter and ranges given depending on what game they are for.
*Note - Each country may individually be applying DeMarre's formula to their test results to fill out their firing table data. Thus the average may be an average of how well this was accomplished.  I have no control of that.

September 28, 2015
Area Fire Artillery Templates are now in the form of a PDF.

September 17, 2015
I have logged a number of links to the reference pages from forum discussion sites dedicated to War Thunder and World of Tank games. Tracing these back to the links it now shows more informed discussions on those forums.  Which is one reason I made the pages.  Another good thing is this helps increase reference material.  In fact I found some new information on these pages which I can incorporate in a new page here.  See Russian Gun Accuracy 2 page 35.